No longer nuts about coconuts? Rupees 3000 per 100 ml soon...

About a year or two ago there was a sudden jump in price of Tender Coconut (from usual Rs. 10 to Rs. 25). I wondered why and how this happened. Now, I think there could be a long drawn man-made problem here within India. Here are some seemingly disparate points that may be leading to this and lead to worse things in future...

1. Systematic brainwashing of Indians that the oils we use are causing health problems - including coconut oil, sesame oil and groundnut oil.
2. Pushing oils based on what the foreigners can grow in their areas - like Sunflower & Olives.
3. Pushing "seemingly" better methods for maintaining hair. They are pushing chemicals, sprays, gels, etc.
4. Naturally a reduction in demand for Coconut oil.
5. Next step reduction in demand for Coconut.

Intentionally killed - right adjacent to really good coconut farms near the National Highways, Tamilnadu

6. Real-estate demand going higher and higher in value as it is pushed up due to a variety of factors - black-money, Foreign investment in real-estate, more NRIs investing in Indian real-estate bubble.
7. Agriculturists turning to intentionally destroying coconut farms to convert them for commercial purposes - schools, colleges, big community housing, or just cut into plots & sell by projecting more growth in real estate prices.
8. Even though laws are supposed to be in place for prevention of such mis-use of agricultural lands, there are enough people hand-in-glove (plus using loop-holes of demonstrating dying trees) to make these commercial switches.
9. Demand for tender coconut has not reduced much, even though demand for the oil has reduced a lot. Hence price for tender coconut has shot up a lot.

Closer view of the farm

What is expected in future? As I saw on my visit to Kodaikanal by road - along many places in the drive up and down, including river delta areas - more coconut farms are being let to rot, or intentionally killed for other uses.

It is going to make coconut oil (I still feel it is good when used in appropriate ways and in moderation - as was done 30-40 years ago or earlier) as well as tender coconut costly in coming years.

We should not be surprised if someone announces in 2025 "Coconut oil from Africa is best balm for wounds, hair, etc. Please buy at Rs. 3000 per 100ml" OR if another company patents coconut and its properties in America / Europe while anyway importing it from Central America / Africa!

Roadmap to loot from NRIs

Here are some seemingly disconnected points and events.

1. NRIs are looking to invest in Indian real estate as a good financial savings instrument which has usually increased in value on continuous basis - ever-booming commodity.
2. Acres of land being converted from agricultural fields into colonies for residences - independent villas and apartment complexes.
3. NRIs who have settled abroad, some of whom have even taken up the citizenship of their country of residence, do not give any roots for their children in India. That is, the children do not like to live in India and have built a hate for the various issues in this country.
4. Politicians or people with political / bureaucratic connections are able to push through processes to facilitate real estate business to boom.
5. With global economic conditions being volatile the constantly increasing value of real-estate in India, backed by knowledge of recent booms in the same, entice NRIs to invest in 2nd, 3rd or 4th houses, which are then let out on rent. Sometimes they are under-lock-and-key when they do not get reliable tenants.
6. Indian real-estate market has now increased supply by very high numbers, causing sudden dearth of demand and crisis for the big-players who had invested heavily in big colony projects. Read in a Facebook post from a real-estate magazine that about 50,000 units are yet to be sold around Chennai and it is supposed to be the least among al cities (not verified this information).
7. Rupee now being devalued at a very fast pace, encouraging further NRI investment into real-estate. Will the NRI fall for this low-hanging fruit?
8. Sometimes the colonies and complexes are in low-lands near the rivers! We see time and again that floods affect thousands of people who have built in wrong places.

Flooded "plots" somewhere near river Cauvery (or Kollidam) - Muthu Nagar (Pearl suburb)

Now, are there any connections here? Or, will there be future connections between some of these points?

• We hear so much news of how houses in India, which belongs to NRIs or children of NRIs (who were born citizens of the country of their residence), are exploited by various local parties in India.
• Sometimes the NRIs have to jump through hoops to try and get back their property, and in some situations stretching court-cases to many years.
• Now, if the 2nd/3rd generation of the NRIs are not going to return to India, then what happens to the property? Who is going to finally benefit from such hard-earned money invested into the real-estate in India?

Somehow it is a foreboding feeling that the political class in cohorts with bureaucrats and big real-estate businessmen will milk the NRIs to the maximum possible and then later be able to take over the property as well, knowing that the next generation(s) of such people with different long term plans will be easy targets of such operations.

I guess we can take refuge in the classical Krishna's sayings: What did you bring here, for you to lose it?

Jai Hind